GDP by State, 2021Q1

BEA released figures today. From the release:

In general, the Nation is close to peak levels recorded in 2019Q4; nevertheless, theres large variation.

Long lasting goods manufacturing increased 15.6 percent nationally and contributed to the increases in 48 states. This industry was the leading factor to the boosts in 24 states including Utah, the state with the 2nd biggest boost.
Specialist, scientific and technical services increased 11.8 percent nationally and added to the boosts in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. This market was the leading factor to the boost in six states and the District of Columbia.
Details services increased 14.4 percent nationally and added to the increases in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. This market was the leading contributor to the increase in Colorado, the state with the 5th largest increase.
Nondurable products producing decreased 4.2 percent nationally. This industry moderated boosts in real GDP in 36 states, including Texas, the state with the tiniest increase.

Durable goods making; expert, scientific, and technical services; and information services were the leading factors to the boost in genuine GDP nationally (table 2). Lodging and food services was the leading contributor to the increase in Nevada. Accommodation and food services increased 16.9 percent nationally and contributed to the boosts in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Other highlights

Hawaii is at the top at 7.9%, Utah at the bottom at -3.9%.

Figure 2: GDP annualized development rate, 2021Q1. An entry of 0.11 signifies 11% annualized development.

Quarter 1 growth rate also differs commonly. Below are annualized rates.

Figure 1: GDP relative to 2019Q4 GDP; darker shading signifies higher ratios. An entry of 0.06 shows GDP was 6% greater in 2021Q1 than in 2019Q4. Source: BEA, and authors computations.

Fastest growth going from 2020Q4 to 2021Q4 was 10.9% in Nevada, vs. slowest at 2.9% (Washington DC).

How does the recovery associate with vaccination rate. Below is a map of vaccination rates:

Greatest partial vaccination rates are in Vermont (73%), and most affordable in Mississippi (36%).

Figure 3: Partial vaccination rates, %. Darker shading denotes greater rates. Source: USAFacts (as of 24 June 2021), and authors computations.

Clearly, this remains in the nature of a connection; there are no control variables (e.g., structure of economy, initial per capita GDP, etc.), nor accounting for endogeneity. Nevertheless, the truth that the connection turns up so easily is fascinating

Long lasting items manufacturing; professional, clinical, and technical services; and info services were the leading factors to the boost in genuine GDP nationally (table 2). Lodging and food services was the leading contributor to the boost in Nevada. Lodging and food services increased 16.9 percent nationally and contributed to the boosts in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Figure 1: GDP relative to 2019Q4 GDP; darker shading represents higher ratios. Figure 2: GDP annualized development rate, 2021Q1.

Figure 4: 2021Q1 GDP relative to 2019Q4 versus partial vaccination rate (blue dots), nearest neighbor fit (brown line). Source: BEA, USAFacts (since 24 June 2021), and authors calculations.

As it ends up, a higher degree of healing is associated with a higher partial vaccination rate (using Q1 GDP, as displayed in Figure 1)– and statistically considerably so, utilizing robust regression (slope = 0.056). (Drop outliers in relative GDP Hawaii and Wyoming, and OLS indicates a significantly positive relationship, in which a one percentage point higher vaccination rate is associated with a 0.05 percentage point higher level of relative GDP).

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Author: NEWS

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